While discussing relations among different segments of Armenians, are usually studied mutually exclusive approaches. As a rule, the politicians and experts representing Armenia say that these approaches must be “Armeniacentric,” and the Armenians must be consolidated in their native land. Our compatriots from other countries express themselves more reservedly: they point out the specificity of Diaspora and hint at today’s not that favorable situation in Armenia.
Such a difference in opinions is more conditioned by mental peculiarities of the representatives of different segments of Armenians than by realistic, expert approaches. Let’s notice that to the present day there aren’t any complex strategic and conceptual approaches to political organization of the world-spread Armenians. This problem is very seldom addressed to or studied. However, the ideas about expediency of information-network centric (IC) system for political organization of Armenians have recently been spread in the political and analytical community, and it is very difficult not to agree with such a standpoint.
Let’s remember that the elements subject to organization in the IC system considered to be perfect, being dissipated, nevertheless, have single guidance and objectives, are on one information plane – network, and, at the same time, are highly capable of functioning independently. As we can see IC system application supposes certain ideological (in the context of objectives), organization and information preconditions. At the same time, one of the IC system advantages is flexibility: it may be affected by different modifications – depending on situation in different segments of Armenians, and objectives worked out for the very time period.
The complex of the above mentioned issues are extensions enough, and its realistic discussion requires exhaustive information on different segments of the Armenians. Let’s also mention that in the IC system are included not only traditional structures of the Armenians, but also heterogeneous Armenian (or functioning by the participation of Armenians) organizations and institutions, including the transnational ones. Taking into account the mentioned realities, we’ll make an attempt to discuss some of the possible versions of the IC system of the Armenians connected with some possible scenarios concerning the Armenians. Among the varieties of theoretical versions we will particularly consider two extreme and one “interim” scenarios.
“Virtual Armenia:” the essence of this extreme (the worst) scenario is the following: as a result of certain military-strategic developments, today’s Armenia (the RA, NKR) is deprived of Armenian population and turns into an abstract, virtual idea-perception (almost like the one Western Armenia is for Javakhq). This scenario is possible especially in case of the following developments.
- Nuclear-ecological catastrophe: Iran-US/Israel conflict brings to a regional nuclear war, as a result of which the neighbor of Iran, Armenia, is exposed to ecological catastrophe. Scientific forecast of the nuclear war after effects has a 60-year-old history, however, let’s mention the latest ones. According to the researches conducted by Colorado University, in case of setting off 50 atomic bombes at local conflicts (the power of which doesn’t exceed the power of bombs dropped on Hiroshima) 50 million people will be killed, i.e. almost as many as during WW2. In case of such a disaster, it will be impossible to inhabited the territory of Armenia.
- Military-political catastrophe. As a result of geopolitical upheavals and military-political developments the RA and NKR become subject to large-scale interventions and long-term occupation of Turkey and Azerbaijan.
Consequences: As a result of making a reality of one of these scenarios, both of the Armenian states stop existing, and today’s territory of Armenia is bereft of indigenous population. Under such developments, the Armenians will probably be redistributed in other countries and Armenia will one day turn into a virtual native land.
Let’s notice that this picture probably seems to be quite impossible, but only a few main challenges pose theoretically possible threat against the security of Armenia. In case of such developments the objective of existence and organization of the Armenians may be attained only through shaping IC system. Under such conditions viability of the system may perhaps in practice be guarantied in case a few centers of information controls function along with it, however, none of them enjoying dominating status. These centers must be controlled by united ideological postulates representing the security conception of the Armenians and work by the principle of mutual aid ensuring positive feedback among its elements. The systems ensuring such a collaboration and mutual influence are accepted to call nonlinear.
“Powerful Armenia.” This extreme (optimal) scenario supposes the following developments: as a result of geopolitical upheavals and developments Armenia restores its natural-territorial integrity, and the Armenians are consolidated in this new and powerful state. It is particularly possible in case:
- Turkey is engaged in a wide-range war with one or a few of its neighbors at the same time (for example, with Iraq, Armenia and Greece).
- Unfavorable course of war for Turkey results inter-ethnic conflicts: to the struggle already waged by Turks will also join other national minorities –Armenians, Greeks and others, that’s to say, the so called “crisis identity” transfers to the practical military-political plane.
- The above mentioned processes strain relations among the Turkish groupings themselves having different political orientation, and, at last, result civil clashes. State and society crisis gets out of control.
- Armenia and the Armenians (possibly other interested powers as well) make a good use of the situation with Turkey, favor partition of this country and they manage to considerably restore natural-territorial integrity of Armenia. The next step is the Armenians’ concentration on the territory of the liberated native land, and in that way is formed a powerful Armenian state.
However, even the Powerful Native Land, where most of the Armenians may live, must aspire to have not numerous but capable to function communities in developed countries. In other words, even if Armenia turns into the dominating center of the Armenians, it is still necessary to aspire at preserving resources traditional for the world-spread Armenians which give them status of special embassies. In case such a version comes true it is to be formed an Armenia based classical IC system of organizing the Armenians with predominantly one center of control.
“Developed Armenia.” This scenario is possible under the following conditions:
- By the instrumentality of the Armenians, state resources and ally states Armenia obtained guarantee of military security, possibly integrated into international structures and began the process of resettlement of the liberated territories.
- Developed Armenia becomes very attractive for the Armenians, relations with the Armenians become of more systemized character, begins formation of a united information plane of the Armenians.
These developments are more realistic, and, perhaps, are forcibly predestined, as for undeveloped Armenia the formation of the IC system for organizing the Armenians will face great difficulties.
No doubt, that Developed Armenia, having the considerable part of national resources, will represent the most organized segment of the Armenians. As a result, an important role is given to such a state in the IC system. At the same time, the considerable part of national technological and material resources will be in other civilization zones and in the hands of Armenians functioning in other organization formats, i.e. these segments of the Armenians may also play a leading role in the IC system of the Armenians.
In that way, from information-network-centric standpoint, in case of Developed Armenia, Armenia takes a middle position between the two preceding scenarios. Such an “interim” scenario must combine nonlinear (decentralized) and classical (Armeniacentric) conceptions.